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Well the big rally lasted two days and it's been basically down hill.

We should hit a lower low and break below the March 10th low very soon, unless the government offers another surprise to help us out again. Or to burden tax payers and future generations depending on your view.

After this new low or government intervention, the next big counter trend rally will arrive and last through the elections. If you are near retirement and are not yet safe this next counter trend rally should provide the opportunity for you to get out of risky stocks.

Remember, big rallies are usually in bear markets. Don't worry about missing the bottom. We are in a mess and creating a new mess to solve this mess isn't the solution. We are passing the buck from wall street to main street. According to our leaders this strategy is supposedly less painful in the end. They happen to be ex wall street guys, except for Ben who is an academic. Got it?! Feel Good?! I hear ya! In the end, the solution is old fashion number crunching. Reduce debt, reduce risk and save more.

What about the Ted Spreads...well, lending is still historically very tight except for certain sectors, thus lots of bankruptcies and more bank failures in 2009. Bankruptcies can not be prevented. While lending is increasing somewhat it is only to the worthy, large businesses.

Relatively speaking lending is extremely tight from a historical context. As a result, Small - Midsize companies will not receive loans and meet obligations. This will force them into bankruptcy, they will be unable to reorganize under chapter 11 because there will be no debtor in possession lending available, thus forced into chapter 13 -bankruptcy.

Thus more unemployment, fear, insecurity. Ugh - tough times still cometh.

How about gold? It is at $735, down from its high of near $1,000. I have been suggesting gold could fall to $600/oz prior to sky rocketing. I believed that deflation was inevitable. I thought the financial crisis would be so bad that all assets would be sold off and now here we are, gold is getting closer to the $600 level (mind you, there will be counter trend rallies up until that point). If gold falls near $600 buy. Don't go crazy, but everyone should have a gold position. Better yet, buy silver, if you can find it.

Bottom line, hang on - new market lows coming, unless the government swoops into save us again. Any saving grace from the government only lasts so long, look at what's been done so far and what's happened to the market each time.