MARKET HEADLINES vs MARKET SENTAMENT

By Denise McCosh

November 4, 2008

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Well, I said I was going to wade back into a short position, but instead I have been sitting on the sidelines watching and reading my charts that have yet to give a real firm signal.

I am completely out of the market, waiting for a clear direction. Those of you who got out of equities, just relax, your hard earned money is safe.

The VIX is down, the Ted Spreads have narrowed, the Wall Street wizards have said we've hit bottom and are on a rebound because all of the bailout monies will soon materialize, yet in the past few days the headlines are simply dismal!!!... Take a look at todays business news headlines;

1) "Manufacturing in the U.S. contracted in October at the fastest pace in 26 years as a record share of banks made it tougher to get loans and faltering economies abroad eroded prospects for American exports."

2)"Job losses accelerated, today's report also showed. The employment index decreased to 34.6 from 41.8 in September. Employers have cut more than three-quarters of a million jobs so far this year, and economists predict the Labor Department in four days will report that the unemployment rate climbed to 6.3 percent in October, matching the highest level since 1994."

3) "The economy shrank at a 0.3 percent pace in the third quarter, with spending on equipment and software declining at a 5.5 percent rate, the biggest drop since the first quarter of 2002. "

4) "In a bid to avert the downturn from becoming the worst recession in the postwar era, the Federal Reserve last week cut its key rate a half point to 1 percent, matching a 50-year low."

5) About 85 percent of domestic banks tightened lending standards on commercial and industrial loans to large and mid- size firms, the highest since the survey began in its current format in 1991, Some 95 percent of U.S. banks raised the costs on credit lines to large firms."

6) The U.S. Treasury more than tripled its planned debt sales for this quarter to help finance a 2009 budget deficit that bond dealers advising the department estimate may swell to almost $1 trillion. The U.S. Treasury faces an unprecedented financing need,'' said Goldman Sachs analyst Ed McKelvey, echoing a similar comment last week by Anthony Ryan, the Treasury's acting undersecretary for domestic finance. "

7) Tight credit conditions may keep the U.S. economy in a slump through the end of next year, while inflation pressures have disappeared, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said. `` My forecast is I don't see any economic growth through 2009,'' Fisher said in a Bloomberg Television interview. ``The credit crisis reached up and grabbed the throat of the global economy and choked off economic growth.''

I believe most of the Economists and Market Analysts are sugar coating with the scenario that the bad news is over and the American public are a healthy economy on its way to a recovery. They are encouraging viewers the great bargains that our out there!...

Instead I am wading back in and shorting this market tomorrow. I don't feel we are healthy enough to become bullish yet. My shorts will be out to Jan - April to allow for sideways triangle/flat movement.

Mind you, I do think there are great bargains out there now, however, the hedge funds and institutions will need to sell anything to raise cash, so I am not ready to pounce on them yet.

At times like these it is imperative to review the empirical evidence versus the talk around what direction the market is heading.