What's Next? Seven Uncomfortable Truths
By Jennifer Bawden, March 30, 2009

Feverish speculators were ripped in half. Intoxicated investors are still nursing healthy scars. It's like the movie "Sharks." As you slowly start dipping your toe in after the last brutal market attack and you get ready for the spring swimming season here are seven clear and present dangers you need to watch out for.

The Tipping Point of the Dollar
By Jennifer Bawden, March 29, 2009

With the Fed buying 300 billion in treasuries I believe that day of reckoning has come! Martin Weiss of Money and Markets adds up the tally of government funds committed so far as close to 13 trillion. He also reports a total of 57.3 trillion in credit default swaps. This inevitably will push the dollar down.

Safe Banks, Insurers and Money Market Funds
By Denise McCosh, March 10, 2009

I have received numerous requests as to which are the safest banks. In addition, I will try to address the issue of safe Insurers and safe Money Markets. This is about your financial safety and what actions to take to protect yourself and your family from financial hardship and waiting in line should there be a run on your bank, insurer (annuity account) or money market.

Ultra Short ETFs NOT Performing as Market Plummets
By Jennifer Bawden, February 21, 2009

I just wanted to let you know that although I am still bullish on TZA, SRS and FAZ (three ETFs shorting the market) there is some important information you need to know.

Five Solutions In A Deteriorating Economy
By Jennifer Bawden, December 30, 2008

Speech given at Renaissance (known as Clinton's think-tank) Charleston, SC

WARNING... SRS and Inverse ETFs
By Denise McCosh, December 7, 2008

I am noticing that the big institutional investors are moving out of the inverse ETF's, especially the SRS. We need to watch this carefully, as you can not swim against this tide. I would hold off investing in these inverse ETF's until we understand the flow of funds movement better.

1929 & Bear Market Strategies
By Denise McCosh, December 7, 2008

Very few people alive today actually lived through the crash of 1929. So, it is difficult for the experts to advise us. History does tell us that really tough bear markets are froth with volatility. Which explains why the market keeps going lower and in between these new market lows are huge market rallies that give false hope to many.

Reits, Gold, Oil and A Dead Cat Bounce
By Jennifer Bawden, December 5, 2008

It seems that some REITs held up well during these last stormy months. A number of articles are touting REITs as a safer play. I couldn't disagree with them more. It takes time for stores to go out of business and I believe the time will come where their bottom line is significantly affected. When customers that sign 10 year leases can't pay their rent and there are no new occupants to fill their space the dominos will fall.

Counter Trend Rally to Continue
By Denise McCosh, November 30, 2008

The counter trend rally continues despite rising unemployment, a slow down in consumer spending and unprecedented bailouts to rescue the financial markets. Despite all of this, we could see another 900 pts up in the Dow before this rally exhausts itself and the markets begin to drop again.

Deflation Dragon Disaster
By Jennifer Bawden, November 25, 2008

Nobody knows were and when Mr. Market will finally bottom but I feel it will be closer to 5400 then 7552. Perhaps the great explosion of our monetary supply will come quickly enough to stop the market from reaching my bear market target. One thing I do know. Eventually, everything will rise with the deliberate great re-inflation tide of the US Peso. That is, until one day our great Uncle Sam drowns in his very own sea of debt taking the US dollar down with him. That is when you can be sure that gold and gold mining companies will soar.

Will Today's Main Street Bailout Work?
By Denise McCosh, November 25, 2008

Today, the Feds and the Treasury announced another major bailout program focused on Main Street. Also issued today was the FDIC's quarterly banking profile. It is interesting to look at this bailout program in light of the recent banking report card and ask, will this additional $800 billion bailout work?

Short Commercial Real Estate for Big Profits
By Jennifer Bawden, November 24, 2008

My opinion is that commercial real estate has barely started what I believe will be a long and severe correction. I think this ETF will hit all time highs of closer to 400 then the high of 295 seen last Friday. I will be watching this ETF closely and if it drops below 125 I will be loading the boat. As I write it is currently dropped to 173.

The Bear Market Rallies
By Denise McCosh, November 24, 2008

Wow, it looks like the major rally I predicated last Thursday definitely came to fruition on Friday and continued today. I would imagine we will see some sort of pull back and then more upwards movement for awhile. However, this is still a counter trend rally in a larger super cycle bear market.

The Deal Is On!
By Denise McCosh, November 20, 2008

Hopefully, you bought the shorts we have long been touting on bounces and cashed out at the lows we broke today - so do the money dance, pop a bottle of bubbly, or whatever floats your boat. If you are out completely, relax and lets see how the patterns unfold before we make the next move.

Charts Say Watch Out Below
By Denise McCosh, November 14, 2008

The fact that we broke the low support level of 845 on the S&P pretty much confirms that the next wave down below 800 is soon to come.

Volatility, Triangle Patters and Fibonacci Retracements
By Denise McCosh, November 12, 2008

We saw the market drop as called for by the triangle pattern and Fibonacci retracements that I mentioned in my last article.

The Debt and Leverage Party Has A Massive Hangover!
By Jennifer Bawden, November 10, 2008

I do not agree with the Wall Street pundits who are calling this the bottom. Make no mistake, we are entering an era of DEFLATION where millions world wide will default on their debt. The tapped out consumer will lead us into a fill fledged recession, unemployment will rise, housing prices will continue to fall and the next bubble will be in Alternative Energy.

Obama Mania Can't Stop Mr. Market
By Jennifer Bawden, November 5, 2008

Wall Street bulls still high on Obama Mania suggest the bottom is in. I suggest the CDO's deleveraging has just begun. It is a universal law, what goes up must come down. As this ridiculously leveraged market deflates, watch out below!

Market Headlines Vs Market Sentiment
By Denise McCosh, November 3, 2008

I am completely out of the market, waiting for a clear direction. Those of you who got out of equities, just relax, your hard earned money is safe. The VIX is down, the Ted Spreads have narrowed, the Wall Street wizards have said we've hit bottom and are on a rebound because all of the bailout monies will soon materialize, yet in the past few days the headlines are simply dismal!!! Take a look at today's business news headlines;

Markets Must Deleverage
By Denise McCosh, October 29, 2008

The market may go up, however, I think there is a major movement down coming, so I am positioning for the next wave down regardless of any interim short term market upswing. The timing is never known, however; it is the overall direction or trend that I see devoloping that I am getting ready for.

Reduce Risk, Debt and Save More
By Denise McCosh, October 22, 2008

After this new low or government intervention, the next big counter trend rally will arrive and last through the election. Don't worry about missing the bottom. We are in a mess and creating a new mess to solve this mess. We are passing the buck from wall street to main street. In the end, the solution is old fashion number crunching. Reduce debt, reduce risk and save more.

Ted Spreads
By Denise McCosh, October 13, 2008

I hate to sound like a broken record, however the only way out of this mess is... A) The markets must deleverage and reprice risk and B) Business/Government/society must become net savers

Gold and Silver Pullback
By Denise McCosh, October 6, 2008

Yawn. No surprise the market tanked big time. Most of you have taken action by now and you are not sweating it, you have reverse ETFs, cash, gold, TBills and if you have put options on the indexes, a big glass of bubbly to you!

I am getting a lot of questions on gold and silver. Here are my thoughts.

Peter Peterson, David Walker and I.O.U.S.A.
By Denise McCosh, October 4, 2008

If we do not make the right choices now, the future consequences and financial burden on our children and grand children will be extraordinarily difficult.

How About That $180 Billion Rescue Plan This Morning, Guess It Didn't Work Too Well...
By Denise McCosh, September 23, 2008

Big History in the making! This is no localized dot.com crisis, this is a systemic problem throughout the financial and credit markets in the free world and the communist world for that matter. SuperFeds to the rescue. How? The FDIC has actually been trying to lure these folks (the professionals who worked on the Resolution Trust) out of retirement for the past year!. Bernanke knows what is going on and what tools are at his disposal. He has spent a lifetime studying market crashes and what did and didn't work. If there was enough information out there for the Contrarian Consensus team to see this crisis coming 2 years ago, then you know Ben saw a lot more than we did and a lot sooner. Remember the math. If the Global derivative market is $700 trillion (this is the leveraged stuff of concern.) Let's assume only 0.01% is bad stuff, that equals $7 trillion. The rescue plan for $180 billion covers only a meager 3% of the $7 trillion.

Fear & Greed
By Denise McCosh, September 22, 2008

Does the creation of the "new" Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC) become a real reason to confirm optimism that the Feds have made it all better by being the depository of all worthless assets OR should this confirm that our worst market fears have come true, now that the Feds have extended their authority to a level never before seen in history to save the global markets.

Demographic Shifts and Market Crisis
By Denise McCosh, September 19, 2008

Mark my words, they are letting the air out of the balloon slowly to avoid a market crash - left on its own, we would have seen the worst market crash in US history if genius Bernanke had not interfered.

Instead we will see an economic slowdown until the air is out of the balloon. This could not have come at a worst time, and I am not just talking about an election year. The US has growing fixed entitlement programs such as Soc Sec, Medicare and Medicaid. These programs consume most of the governments tax revenues.

Spain and Florida Real Estate
By Jennifer Bawden, September 12, 2008

Spain has many more times the empty apartments than I saw on the Florida coast. Miami pales in comparison. To say that there is an abundant supply of unoccupied homes here would be a gross understatement.

Experts are predicting prices could fall 35% in the next 3 years. After watching my Florida waterfront apartment fall from $450,000 to $240,000 in less the 18 months, I can tell you 35% will be clipped off prices here in Southern Spain by this time next year.

The Fall of Our Reserve Currency
By Jennifer Bawden, September 8, 2008

Newton's apple falls to the ground. Speaking of apples, doesn't one spoiled apple spoil the bushel? Those nice clean treasures are now mixing with a growing number of rotten apples.

With a massive re-inflation campaign now underway to try to jumpstart the dying banking system and the economy, we won't have to wait long.

My Shopping List
By Jennifer Bawden, September 5, 2008

I have been waiting for my own version of triple witching; the day when cyclical forces push gold down for the summer, the dollar has a bounce and the market has the large September/ October correction I expect. My shopping list has been scrutinized and I'm ready to pounce!

Gold and Oil Will Fall Further
By Jennifer Bawden, August 16, 2008

I do not for one minute believe that a bottom has been put into this bear market and I also believe that if we sit tight and wait until (as I have been preaching) the sun, stars and planets all align, there will be incredible deals on gold and mining companies. I am referring to; ONE, a late August/September/October crash in the market. TWO, the typical sell gold in May buy back in September slowdown in the metals market. THREE, a short term bounce in the dollar, all of which I believe are about to happen. The idea is to be sitting in cash ready for a 1000 or 2000 Dow down week or two. When everybody wakes up and figures out that all the worlds currencies are going to be inflated, just as the US has tried to do to keep the economy churning, commodities will continue their very strong bull run. Be patient while Gold and Silver fall. The day will come through when the world will wake up to realize that America has a lot more then just a cold and I fear one day the dollar could tumble as fast as it seems to now be rebounding

1000 to 2000 Point Drop In The DOW Coming
By Jennifer Bawden, August 4, 2008

The time is coming very shortly here in the next few weeks or months where we are going to see a 1000 to 2000 drop in the DOW. I want to get my remaining money safe so when the market crashes and gold crashes with it I will be able to buy it at a low.

Dollar Rebounds & Commodities Tumble
By Jennifer Bawden, August 4, 2008

As I have been telling you for over a year and a half, things are about to get a lot worse so get safe! Many more banks and brokerage firms will go bust before Christmas. Time to open an account at your nearest safe bank. Your money and accounts will be temporally frozen if your bank goes under.

Bottom Fishing For Gold Mining Companies
By Jennifer Bawden, July 18, 2008

If we are lucky we might even see the dollar strengthen on a short-term basis giving us a last chance to get in on our favorite gold mining or oil dividend stocks. I figure when big market turmoil days come some of these good stocks will fall within their 5-year low range.

Toxic Derivative Soup
By Denise McCosh, April 30, 2008

Warren Buffet calls them 'financial weapons of mass destruction' The toxic alphabet soup of derivatives - SIV's CDO's, CLO's , ABS & SPV's etc. It is musical chairs. No bank wants to get stuck with this toxic soup and, to make matters worse, the risk is not very visible, so bankers hold their cash and lending grinds to a halt. In the end Ben Bernanke said it best, 'the market needs to re-price risk' and 'there will be bank failures' - on national TV and as testimony before the senate. When this happens the markets will crash. Equities, Gold, Silver, etc. will devalue. Good stocks and commodities will be sold off with the bad stocks because the banks will need to raise cash in order to meet that magical 4% cash reserve requirement on the risky financial instruments they hold.

Financial Armageddon
By Jennifer Bawden, January 23, 2008

I have nervously watched the US credit bubble and housing bubble grow larger. The US government and the US populous are spending way too much and are headed down a perilous road. A good read is Financial Armageddon by Michael Panzner. With this foresight I believe you will be better equipped to batten down the hatches and protect yourself from the financial tsunami that could soon arrive. Side step the derivative nightmare by shorting the market (Proshares ETFs short Real Estate, financials, Russell 2000 etc.) Buy these on bull rallies in each sector.If brokers can not change direction from a bullish to bearish mentality Investment banks will take multiple losses on the chin.

A Crippling Toxic Cocktail
By Jennifer Bawden, December 30, 2007

I suggest you fasten your seatbelts because the 2008 roller coaster ride is about to begin. Bernanke's current dilemma- Wall Street and the politicians are putting serious pressure on the Fed to lower interest rates to calm the markets and stop a housing disaster. But, as interest rates drop, our foreign buyers move from the dollar to more attractive investments elsewhere. Some still think the credit crunch will not spill over to Main Street. It seems so obvious to me that the credit bubble was Main Street's engine. Everyone seems to forget, it is someone else's money and debt eventually has to be paid back! An implosion was/is inevitable. The thought that you will not even hear whispered by bankers or politicians is that an unhinging of the reserve currency could happen and that a sudden dive by the dollar would cause financial panic, a plummeting stock market, oil priced in the US dollar would rise to way over $100 a barrel and the gold price, which has been shouting inflation and dollar crisis, would quickly jump over $1000 an ounce as investors seek protection in safe havens. The second biggest unspoken fear is that unprecedented seizing up of financial markets caused by the mortgage credit derivatives could bankrupt businesses unable to raise funds, cause more large banking layoffs and put some highly leveraged hedge funds out of business. I believe once the bulls have exhausted themselves, cash will be king, gold will be emperor and small cap will be the fool.

Dominos, Market Correction, Gold & Shopping Lists
By Jennifer Bawden, December 24, 2007

The bulls have been running so furiously they do not know how to react, nor do they understand any of the signs in a bear market. The obvious domino effect from the turmoil you now see will lead to continued seizing up of Real Estate loans and, in my opinion, a fall of residential Real Estate to below 2001 prices. If gold plummets when the market crashes a good bet would be HGU Gold Bull (the Canadian ETF that tracks gold.) Gold will undoubtedly rebound very quickly in a fear-based stampede for safety. In a market where cash is king, gold will be emperor! That being said, the charts show we could have a last bull rally in gold. We have seen the start of it today and on Friday. I think it will continue into January. I also like the ETF (TWM) Proshares that shorts the Russell 2000 as well as the ETF's shorting the financials and US Real Estate. I figure that in difficult times the Russell 2000 will get hit worse then blue chip. It will be a miracle if we do not see a 20% correction for the first time ever in an election year.

The Fed's Rabbit Stew
By Denise McCosh, September 28, 2007

What other rabbits can the Fed pull out of its hat to promote more consumers debt and increased federal deficits? How do you maintain consumer spending beyond their means when the value of their biggest asset has declined and they have spent the equity? How do you absorb all of the lost jobs from the housing the market? What rabbits can take fear out of the market place? So what rabbit can the fed pull out its hat to maintain foreign appetite for American debt?

The Bubble Just Burst Signaling Gold Will Skyrocket
By Jennifer Bawden, August 12, 2007

I think we are seeing major history in the making. I feel it is the tip of the iceberg and that we are now entering a period where credit will shrink further, exacerbating the problem. Banks and other financial institutions will take a much larger beating than we saw over the past week. Jens predictions: 1) When everyone runs for safety during currency jitters, watch Gold shoot past $1,000 an ounce. 2) I am very bearish on stocks and believe even blue chips will be sold when smart money runs to cash. Financial stocks will continue to suffer. It will NOT be isolated as the Bulls promote and this is NOT just a routine market correction. It is a glimpse at the cancer that has not been diagnosed yet.3)Even if interest rates drop shortly as one of the Band-Aids the Fed uses to try to clean up the sub prime problem or if fear of US instability starts more selling of the dollar, interest rates will have to eventually rise considerably to lure the world back to buying the dollar. 4) Real estate could fall to 2000 prices in your city before it hits the bottom. When the other shoe drops you will see large banking layoffs, an immediate shut down on private company buy outs, private equity injections and of course companies going public. This is just the nature of any strong bear market which I think we are entering. What is happening now and what happened in 1929 share a lot of common denominators. A recipe for disaster which is presently unfolding before our eyes has happened before.

Smoke and Mirrors
By Denise McCosh, July 28, 2007

I call it Smoke – what is it really and how do you get your arms around it to properly value it. The smoke is … The total value of the world market for Derivatives, CDO’s and Sub Prime Mortgages.